Looking Through the Hysteria of Abiy’s War

Almost on a daily basis, we witness Abiy Ahmed and his associates turning their rhetoric into a call for war. Statements such as “Our enemy Eritrea has declared war on us” and “War between Ethiopia and Eritrea is inevitable; it will not be delayed” are being echoed repeatedly—first by Teshome Mulatu, then by Abraham Belay, Tsadkan, and others, later amplified by anti-Eritrean foreign voices who have long harbored grievances and are well known to us.

Yet, Ethiopia is already mired in conflicts it has failed to win—against the Amhara, the Oromo, and other groups within its own borders. The Abiy government refuses to acknowledge, discuss, or even allow recognition of this reality, burying its head in the sand and hoping the people will not notice. The same pattern applies to the ongoing crisis in Tigray and its devastating humanitarian toll. They are desperate to suppress the fact that Ethiopia has become lawless, insecure, economically paralyzed, and burdened under a regime that has lost public support.

Unable—and unwilling—to address this deepening crisis, one that has pushed Ethiopia to the brink of catastrophe, the regime instead manufactures distractions, fueling new dramas to divert attention. Before resorting to war rhetoric, they sought to manipulate public sentiment with grandiose claims: control over strategic waterways and sea access, oil production, miraculous economic growth, and advanced military capabilities. But these illusions crumbled. The people were not deceived. So, they reignited their efforts with yet another spectacle.

And yet, Abiy’s government persists. They are true believers in the notion that “intimidation is half the battle”—but they have elevated it to an art form, wielding the mere threat of conflict as their primary strategy. They hope to rally external backers by stoking chaos. Their core tactic remains “Confuse and Convince”—a calculated ploy to manipulate narratives. However, this does not mean they lack the ambition for war. Even without justification or a viable path forward, their desperation may ultimately push them over the edge.

We must look beyond the smokescreen. And when the time comes, we must stop them—smartly, decisively, and with unwavering resolve.

ER Media